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Posted: 27th December 2023

Climate change could threaten seabird populations, study finds
Arctic terns could see population declines of 70 per cent.
Puffins, fulmars and Arctic terns could see declines of 70 per cent.

A study has forecast that populations of the majority of British and Irish seabirds could see significant decline by 2050, if the global temperature continues to rise.

The research, led by the British Trust of Ornithology (BTO), suggests that seabird species such as puffins and arctic terns will suffer long-term impacts that may surpass losses during the avian influenza outbreak.

Predictions made under the scenario of a two degree warming by 2050 show that species including puffins, fulmars and Arctic terns could see population declines of more than 70 per cent compared to numbers at the turn of the millennium.

Marine specialist species, which includes terns, auks and petrels, are considered to be more at risk than more generalist, adaptable species like gulls. While some species may be able to relocate to different areas of Britain and Ireland, for many species this will not be enough to compensate for population losses in their current breeding grounds.

Although each species responds to marine and terrestrial climate differently, there was a trend of seabirds appearing in lower numbers where the air temperature was higher during their breeding season.

The study concludes that increases in air and sea temperatures, as well as other marine changes such as rainfall, could be detrimental for most seabird species. These changes in climate could result in reduce food availability, and increased mortality from extreme weather events.

Dr Jacob Davies, BTO research ecologist and lead author of the study, states that kittiwakes and puffins may be particularly threatened by climate change.

He said: “Alongside the potential negative future effects of climate change, many of our seabirds are already in steep decline, due to a range of factors including overfishing and avian influenza.

“The better we understand the problems these iconic species face and how birds may respond to them, the better placed we will be to help them.”

Dr Rich Howells, senior marine ornithologist for the Scottish Government’s Marine Directorate and study co-author, added: “This study provides important information on potential climate change impacts over the long-term, which can be used to inform our conservation actions to increase resilience in seabird populations.”

The full study can be found in the journal Marine Ecology Progress Series.

Image © Shutterstock



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